Monday, August 19, 2013

Lady Goat List Analysis

I have now played 10 games with this list:

Circle Orboros
Standard Army
PCs: 50 / 50
32 models

[00] Morvahna the Dawnshadow (0 / 5 WB)
[02]  >> Druid Wilder
[10]  >> Warpwolf Stalker
[04]  >> Gorax
[01] Gallows Grove
[01] Gallows Grove
[02] Shifting Stones
[01]  >> Stone Keeper
[02] Shifting Stones
[10] Tharn Blood Pack (5 grunts)
[09] Tharn Ravagers (5 grunts)
[02]  >> Tharn Ravager Chieftain
[08] Warpborn Skinwalkers (4 grunts)
[03]  >> Warpborn Alpha

so I'm going to give a detailed analysis of how the list works, its strengths and weaknesses and ideas for where I might go to next.



Win Condition
This is primarily a scenario list. I have won 4/10 games by scenario. Morvahna's feat makes me unafraid of sacrificing Ravagers for scenario position. Even if I go second the projected threat of the Ravagers buys scenario position. They can charge a model an inch past the half way point and with MAT 9 POW 15 on the charge, they will kill stuff. It often means my opponent is hanging back a bit first turn, not pushing right up to the half way point. On my first turn the Ravagers are happy to run and jam so I still get good scenario position. The list also has very strong assassination threats. Morvahna is a threat, the Stalker with primal and Carnivore is a massive threat and with Carnivore and rerolls the Tharn are almost more dangerous than those two. Purification helps massively in the assassination as do the rerolls. Combine with the movement shenanigans of double stones the abillity to remove tough with the trees and the ability to put Blood Pack in the back arc of a caster and still shoot and the list has a lot of assassination angles which really requires careful play out of an opponent. Lastly is the ability of the list to attrition down, to kill all your opponents stuff and win that way. This is what I thought would be her strength and it is, kind of. So far it has only happened in the bad match ups. To be honest I often win without feating or feat right before winning and it's not from bad play from my opponent. The list is strong enough to force the issue with scenario, force your opponent into bad trades in order to stop me just winning and often to force their caster forwards to try to turn the tides both of which slant the match in my favour without feating. I'm often clearing the zone, dominating and feating models back in front of the zone or just clearing a path to my opponents caster and killing them.

Model Ratings
Wilder - It's useful to be able to put sprint on the Stalker or Primal when assassinating or killing a colossal but it's not necessary. Morvahna usually has the fury I just like to save it for transfers. Still safe play is important but this is two points that can easily go from the list.

Stalker/Gorax - putting these two together because they are a package. The Gorax is a great transfer target and combined with the Stalker gives me real armour cracking when I need it. I can purify the ARM buff of a colossal and with rerolls and stone ports (to save the fury on charging) kill a lot of them (particularly when you add in a Ravager charge or two). Stealthing the Stalker is fantastic. I find he also makes a great Carnivore target, you can sprint him with the Wilder, put Carnivore on him and warp Prowl and he has enough fury to just buy attack and kill all the infantry in his melee range before sprinting to safety and having some 8 wound infantry get in the road. With Stealth he is pretty much invincible. He's also not necessary for what the list does so you can happily trade him for a colossal. She heals enough that she doesn't need a full complement of fury. 

Gallows Groves - Used more to remove tough than for arcing spells. That said Death Knell can be an important part of an assassination run and I have killed Eiryss by porting a tree an inch away and boosting blast damage on her. It's worth it. I would not get rid of them, tough is the only thing that slows down the Ravagers which have been absolute stars since I put them in this list. Great utility for a point.

Shifting stones - in the original incarnation of this list (not included in my 10 games) I had only a single unit of shifting stones. I was wrong, this list needs two. They force your opponent into bad trades, they add so much to assassination and the extra healing for Morvahna allows you to continue to reroll when you aren't getting anything out of Carnivore. 

Blood Pack - I love them in this list. They form a second wave behind the Ravagers and are fantastic at it. Assault and Battery is a ridiculous rule. They give you more attacks on a caster when they come forwards (Don't discount RAT 8 with a reroll), they shoot things in the way of the Ravagers to allow them to push further forwards and they kill a lot of stuff. There is some anti-synergy with the blood pack and fog of war but they are far forwards and Morvahna generally doesn't want to be. Most turns you start by moving Morvahna up to get the end positions of both units of Tharn in her control area, she doesn't need to be further forwards. You need to remember it but it's usually not an issue. Once they get Assault and Battery off and start getting corpse tokens they become ridiculously scary as they can use those tokens to boost ranged attacks. 

Ravagers - The stars of this list. For a unit I almost did not include boy do they do a lot of work. They crack ARM when needed, give me huge scenario presence and just mow through infantry. Even just two or three left alive after jamming your opponent will generally remove a unit of infantry and then they come back. It's the reroll, MAT 7, reach, Gallows Groves to remove tough, POW 13 to kill every time and the ability to buy another attack when you kill a model. If they can get into a forest at the edge of a zone they go to DEF 15 too and 17 from ranged attacks making them extremely survivable. 

Skinwalkers - They have been underwhelming. Possibly because my hopes were too high when I first put them in the list. They generally take the friendly dominate zone because of their lesser speed and when they get there they tear through infantry. They are great at healing Morvahna and add to the grind of the list. Perhaps it's the fact that I have not really had to grind because of the strong scenario and assassination potential in this list. At the least though your opponent inevitably shoots at them making them SPD 7 which allows them to get into some infantry and heal Morvahna up so she can reroll whatever the hell she wants. 

Strengths
No game against an infantry heavy list has been anything less than a landslide. When she can reroll 7-8 things, heal fully and then reroll some more you just find the list doing way too much work. This list likes the split scenarios because she can split up with Tharn in one zone and the Skinwalkers in the other one with the Stalker in shifting stones threatening both, most opposing lists cannot spilt up as effectively allowing her to score one of the zones. She also likes the more winnable scenarios. Incursion is a great one but even Destruction is winnable for her, there are a some hard hitting models who want to sit in the back of her list and be safe rather than attack enemy models in the early parts of the game and they are fine with killing objectives. Killing an objective also triggers sprint which is pretty neat. Killbox is not an issue for her because she generally camps a lot of fury and her army presses forwards enough that the engagement line is well away from the killbox line. 

Weaknesses
I thought ARM cracking would be a weakness for her but it generally isn't. She can purify off upkeep spells which deals with a lot of the ARM cracking out there and she's happy to trade a Stalker. I've played her a couple of times now against ARM stacking jack walls and they can't trample over the medium bases into the scenario zones, they don't have enough attacks to get through all my models and she can kill high ARM targets if she needs to. You really only need a few rerolls a turn if you are being conservative and with the double shifting stones and imperishable conviction she has plenty of healing for those crucial rolls. It's not ideal for her but she is still in the game. She doesn't care about being jammed either. Going second I will start with the Stalker and Morvahna in the non-stealth stone unit so I can sprint and double port the Stalker (I have not found much of a use yet for double porting Morvahna + sprint and light caving early game but I still like the option). That + Death Knell + the movement shenanigans of the blood pack clears a jam pretty effectively. I have not played her against Cryx yet and in theory that is a bad match up, I will have to play it and see but my suspicion is that while it's less than optimal she still has a game. Lists with a lot of boostable guns are in theory scary too, I'm probably scared of dropping her against triple Ravagores but at least in the case of Menoth and Retribution guns I've found that she just swarms and overruns them. She's too good at getting to the guns and taking them off the table. You need to camp, play a little conservatively (stay as far as possible from the Banshee) but again she is in the game. RFP hurts but having multiple units I can feat on really reduces the effectiveness of removing things from play. Also the feat has not been a major deciding factor in most games. Combining all those things is probably the only thing that would really hurt her, put her in a match up where she is actually on the back foot and not just less on the front foot.

Possible Changes
The obvious one is Blood Pack for another Stalker. It hurts her scenario game but it makes the list a lot more balanced and really takes any weakness to ARM right off the table. That's the list I would play in a hardcore/single list environment. It's also my specialist for the list. 

Woldwrath - It's one I have thought about. I'm currently assembling my Woldwrath and looking for a good miniature skateboard for him. With him and a Woldwatcher you can make Morvahna a lot safer against shooting and he can stay back and shoot during the early game whereas the Stalker is relying on being a lot closer (with sprint) or often not contributing at all. That is however a 25 point battlegroup which take 9 points out of my list. At which point I probably consider dropping the Tharn and my scenario ambitions and bringing in the Reeves.

Reeves - Reeves sacrifice a whole lot of scenario play. With Reeves this stops being a scenario list and starts being a grindy attrition list. The feat becomes more important and so do the Skinwalkers. You bring in some more assassination options at better range so you are actually able to properly assassinate rather than forcing your opponent to walk into one in an attempt to turn the game around. 

Playing Against Her
I said above that you need to combine her weaknesses and having played her a fair bit now (13 games if you include the three I played with Wolves of Orboros instead of Ravagers) I am fairly convinced of that. Forcing her to purify is good, it reduces her camp, having a strong ranged threat with boostable guns is good, it forces her to be conservative, having mostly non-living models is good, it reduces her healing and therefore her rerolls, having a strong scenario presence is very, very important as it allows you to play your game rather than make bad moves to avoid scenario loss and being able to kill and preferable RFP multi wound infantry helps grind her out. 

Conclusion
I'm actually pretty happy with this list. I will play the Woldwrath version but right now I'm really enjoying this list. For me, for my style of play I think it's her best list. Perhaps more attrition minded players will prefer the other versions but I'm happy with this one. I may update the weakness catagory when I actually lose a game or two and I'm sure it will happen. At the moment I have been concentrating on bad match ups that can happen against factions she wants to play against and she's doing pretty well. 

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